Good Problem Solvers Are Good Thinkers. They Have Less Drama And Problems To Begin With And Don’t Get

If we ever get over this political crisis, is there growth ahead?

So far the market has not really been phased by the government shutdown. We have seen a small downturn this week but no large change. However if the U.S. does does not come to a consensus over the Affordable HealthCare Act and we don't raise the Debt Ceiling it could have catastrophic consequences on the economy. Most investors seem to be complacent saying that the shutdown/debt ceiling is not a reason to sell stocks. However, if the U.S. does reach what many think to be a 0% chance scenario where we are unable to pay the interest on our loans it is predicted that the S&P 500 would crash to 850, about a 50% drop. However if we do make it past this Political fiasco the economy may still have juice left to climb. I have written a few times before about KKR, as experts in the market they often provide useful insights. Alex Nevab KKR's co-head of Americas private equity said, "We actually see the economy recovering and has further to go through 2016 or 2017." KKR believes that if we do get past this debt ceiling crisis that the market was not at a low point or a high point and is showing a good environment for growth. Other notable leaders in KKR include former RNC chairman Kenneth Mehlman and General David Petraeus.

http://assetsandmanagement.blogspot.com/2013/10/if-we-ever-get-over-this-political.html

Lazard hits new 52 week high

Zachs Equity Research

November 16th 2013.

Shares of Lazard Ltd.  reached a new 52-week high, touching $41.66 at the second half of the trading session on Nov 18. However, the stock closed the session at $41.26, which reflects a solid year-to-date return of 34.7%.The trading volume for the session was 0.5 million shares. Despite the strong price appreciation, this Zacks Rank #3 (Hold) stock has plenty of upside left, given its strong estimate revisions over the last 30 days and expected long-term earnings growth of 12.0%. Growth Drivers Impressive third-quarter 2013 results comprising a positive earnings surprise of 31.64%, top-line growth, a strong capital position and higher assets under management (AUM) were the primary driving factors for Lazard. On Oct 24, Lazard reported third-quarter 2013 adjusted earnings of 46 cents per share, outpacing the Zacks Consensus Estimate of 35 cents. Moreover, this compared favorably with 26 cents earned in the prior-year quarter. On a year-over-year basis, Lazard experienced 10.0% rise in both revenues and AUM, which acted as positives for the quarter. AUM growth resulted from market appreciation and rise in net inflows. Additionally, the company’s capital ratios depict its strong position. However, a 4.3% increase in expenses was the headwind for the quarter. Further, Lazard has delivered positive earnings surprises in 3 out of the last 4 quarters with an average beat of 35.95%. Estimate Revisions Show Potency Over the last 30 days, 3 out of 7 estimates for 2013 have been revised upward, lifting the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 4.7% to $1.77 per share. For 2014, 4 out of 7 estimates moved north, helping the Zacks Consensus Estimate advance 6.1% to $2.44 per share.

Gold has become the most hated commodity lately. What happened to the days when everyone had to own the precious metal? After all, more and more centr…

Gold has become the most hated commodity lately. What happened to the days when everyone had to own the precious metal? After all, more and more central banks around the world are printing money faster than ever. The Federal Reserve (U.S. central bank) is still creating $85 billion a month out of thin air. Other central banks in England, Japan, Asia, and Europe continue to do the same thing. So why has gold struggled so much? It seems that gold is now trading inversely to the USD/JPY (U.S. Dollar vs the Japanese Yen). Today, the USD/JPY is falling sharply and this is causing gold futures to rally. Currently, the USD/JPY chart remains in an up-trend on the daily chart. Up-trending markets are very tough to fight since that is where the momentum is. Should the USD/JPY chart start to fall gold should start to trade higher. Traders and investors might need to take a wait and see approach, but I would say that you shouldn’t get too bearish on gold at this stage of the game. Gold could be setting up to make a sharp move higher very soon if that up-trend in the USD/JPY chart starts to reverse. Nicholas Santiago InTheMoneyStocks.com

The comedy of errors that are IMF forecasts is well known: it was covered most recently in “Hilarious Charts Of The Day: IMF’s “Growth Forecasts” Over Time.” Moments ago we got the IMF’s first forecast update for 2014 which also included the Fund’s first 2015 forecasts for growth around the world. Not surprisingly, they were largely higher across the board except for China which has seen its 2014 projected GDP growth collapse from 8.5% a year ago to 7.5% now, and is expected to drop modestly to 7.3% in 2015. The charts showing the progression of said hilarious forecasts are shown in their entirety below, about which one thing can be said with certainty: whatever the GDP growth rate in the world is in 2014 and 2015 it will be anything but what the IMF predicts it to be.

Continued

A few days ago we noted a major Senate demand of the Treasury Secretary that foreign nations’ currency manipulations should be punished (supported by American Manufacturers Associations). Today we find out that Eric Holder and his DoJ crew have found that nine Japanese car parts makers have colluded to raise prices. As part of the scheme, more than $5 billion in auto parts were sold to U.S. car manufacturers and installed in cars sold in the United States and elsewhere. The companies will pay more than $1.6bn in criminal fines. Seems like a small price to pay for the Japan being allowed to devalue its currency boosting its own car exports?

Continued

Future steps: exoskeleton lets paralyzed snowmobiler walk again

Robotic exoskeletons are a staple of sci-fi, pointing to a future where technology can overcome serious injury and bestow superhuman powers on people. But that future is here today for Paul Thacker, who uses an exoskeleton about once a month to stand up and walk around — no small feat, considering he’s paralyzed from the chest down. 

Typhoon Haiyan: When Do You Say “It’s Time To Start Talking About Climate Change?”

Super Typhoon Haiyan devastated the Philippines, sweeping the island nation with near-record winds…

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Learn what type of impact a credit rating score downgrade can have on your personal life and what steps you can take to recover from a downgrade.

Remembering Nelson Mandela’s 1993 visit to Chicago:

“It was emotional for all of us. To be in the presence of someone so committed to a cause, you rarely meet people in your life like that.” Via Crain’s Chicago Business